Re: Summer Superheroes

Updated 12/4/08 to reflect updated box office numbers.

Summer isn't over yet, but the majority of the anticipated superhero movies have been released, so it's time to take a look back at my predictions and see how I did...

Iron Man

Release Date: May 2, 2008
Prediction: $240 million
Current Box Office: $318 million
Prior to The Dark Knight, this was the highest-grossing movie of the summer. It was neck and neck with Indiana Jones in terms of box office, but it ended up beating Indy to finish as the likely 2nd-highest grossing movie of the year.
Unlike Jones, this was a really good movie. I mentioned that Iron Man isn't a top-tier superhero, but the movie was very well-marketed and that contributed to it's success. But the bigger reason was that it was a good film - Robert Downey Jr. was excellent, the direction and script were fantastic, and it was simply a lot of fun (which is really what a superhero movie should be). I'm glad it did well and will be looking forward to the sequel in a few years.
Summary: My prediction was a bit low, but not unreasonable. I think it surpassed everyone's expectations simply because it was such a good flick.

The Incredible Hulk

Release Date: June 13, 2008
Prediction: $140 million
Current Box Office: $134 million
Was the reboot necessary? If you go by the box office, then the answer would likely be "no". The original Hulk made $132 million, and this film has barely surpassed that. But I think that Marvel will still look at this film as a small victory since it puts the Hulk character in a place that they want him.
After the success of Iron Man, I started to think that perhaps this film would be bigger box office draw that I initially thought. But I don't think the marketing was as good, and I just don't think that the Hulk character is a very big attraction. Basically, he gets angry and destroys stuff - there doesn't seem to be a whole lot you can do with the character. Overall, the movie was solid - not great, but a decent addition to the Marvel universe - and it helps but the Hulk on the map for the upcoming Avengers movie.
Summary: My prediction was damn near spot-on. It didn't quite get to $140, but it was pretty close.

The Dark Knight

Release Date: July 18, 2008
Prediction: $310 million
Current Box Office: $530 million
Most people were expecting big things from this movie, but I don't think anyone anticipated the overwhelming success that this film has had. The box office records that it has set are just staggering. It is easily the 2nd-highest grossing film all-time (domestically) behind Titanic, and is the only other movie to cross the $500 million mark.
The reason: it's a fantastic movie. Everyone that I've talked to has loved it - I've seen it twice and am already looking forward to seeing it again. The script, direction, and acting were all superb (many people are calling for an Oscar for Heath Ledger, and deservedly so). The marketing set a new standard in the industry - its viral marketing campaign was ingenious, and I love how it was integrated with the film.
Summary: It's a phenomenon. My $310 million prediction was insanely low - hell, it reached that mark in 10 days (!). Being a huge Batman fan, I'm absolutely thrilled that Chris Nolan has made such a great movie with the character, and I'm happy to see it become such a huge success.

I mentioned a few other superhero movies that I thought might do well, and they have (to varying level of success). I said to never underestimate a Will Smith movie - and Hancock has made over $227 million, so that's a rousing success (even though it's a terrible film). Hellboy II: The Golden Army had a good opening weekend, but since The Dark Knight opened the following weekend, it hasn't done well since then. Still, it's gotten good reviews and managed $75 million. Punisher: War Zone hasn't been released yet, but I can't see that making over $50 million, even if it is a good movie.